My work sits where climate change, fragility and crisis risk meet. It is applied and policy-oriented, built around questions that matter for decisions: where risks are worsening, how climate finance reaches fragile settings, and how institutions can act earlier and more effectively.

Current areas of work

• Conflict and fragility risk monitoring. Designing systems that combine forecasts, country intelligence, contextual indicators and expert judgement to flag countries at risk of current or future deterioration.
• Climate finance in fragile settings. Understanding the barriers that prevent climate and risk finance from reaching fragile and conflict-affected countries, and identifying practical ways to overcome them.
• Climate action, peace and social cohesion. Examining how climate investments can reduce tensions, strengthen institutions and generate peace and social dividends.
• Crisis preparedness and compound risk. Connecting evidence on conflict, disasters, climate and macro-fiscal pressures so that institutions can act earlier.
• Resilience measurement and climate information. Continuing a long-running interest in how people experience resilience, how it changes after shocks, and how better evidence can improve policy and programming.

The subjects have shifted over time, but the basic concern has stayed fairly constant: how can evidence be made useful before a crisis, rather than simply describing what happened afterwards?

Earlier research and practical tools

Some of my earlier work focused on subjective resilience, mobile-phone panel surveys and the Subjectively Evaluated Resilience Score. The Tools & Resources page explains the thinking behind that work and brings together guides and materials for applying it in practice.

The Publications page contains journal articles, World Bank reports, working papers and commentary across these themes.